August 7, 2012
'The Real Poll Numbers'?Topics: Political News and commentaries
Dick Morris, on what he calls "the real" poll numbers vs. what he calls "the garbage being put out by the media":
[...] On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.I take Morris' predictions with a rather large grain of salt ... but let's hope that, for once, he's spot-on.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he'll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he's down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less -- Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey -- he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama's 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
Yesterday Rasmussen, a reliable pollster of likely voters with an excellent record of trustworthiness and accuracy, had Barack Obama up over Romney by 2 points (47% to 45%) ... although it was only the second time in more than two months of daily tracking that Obama had reached the 47% level of support. Prior to yesterday, he had led Romney on only one of the preceding 34 days. Fox News just reported that today Rasmussen has Obama's lead down to 1 point ... 46 - 45.
In other words, Morris could be on to something.
Posted by Hyscience at August 7, 2012 8:08 AM
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