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May 13, 2011

On Climate Change and the 'Dog S*** Yoghurt Fallacy'

James Delingpole, 'whose right about everything', cuts to the quick of the climate change argument and puts it into an easy-to-understand perspective:

It goes like this: one side of this debate thinks that the best thing to put in yoghurt is fruit; the other side is of the view that what really needs to be added to yoghurt is a nice bit of dog poo. Now suppose we were to compromise. Suppose the latter faction were to concede sufficient ground to agree that only a tiny quantity of dog poo should go into the mainly fruit-rich yoghurt, would this constitute a victory for commonsense?

Of course it wouldn't. Even if just the smallest, smidgen of a fraction of dog poo were to go into that yoghurt it would still be irredeemably tainted. Similar rules apply to the current debate on global warming. On one side -- what you might call the fruit side -- you have those scientists, economists and, yes, bloggers who maintain that CO2 is a generally beneficial trace gas which encourages plant growth and poses no risk of catastrophic global warming. On the other side -- the dog poo side, obviously â€" you have "scientists", politicians, spivs, rent-seekers, cranks, whackos, eco-loons, EU fonctionnaires and such like who believe that CO2 poses a major problem to global climate and must be taxed and regulated to oblivion.

Which side is right? One of the very few things which emerged from yesterday's debate with pellucid clarity was this:

WE DON'T KNOW.

The Warmist scientists are quite capable of talking a good game about their belief system, even to the point -- almost -- of being persuasive on the subject of their computer "projections" of future global temperatures.

But then, so too are the Sceptics. You'd need to be very set in your belief system indeed to come away from one of Professor Ian Plimer's feisty, funny engaging lectures and not be convinced that the whole idea of AGW is a complete crock. Same goes for Professor Nils Axel Morner's hilarious, crazy-Swede lecture on his experiences measuring sea-level rises in the Maldives (there hasn’t been any: whatever the Maldives president and his underwater cabinet tell you). Same also goes for Prof Svensmark: really his cosmic ray theory is gloriously compelling.

In other words there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty out there about the chaotic system which causes climate. But here's the rub: global policy makers are acting as if there isn't.

And the reason they're acting as if there isn't because, essentially, they have been hijacked by the scientists on the Warmist side who -- behaving far more like political activists than dispassionate seekers after truth -- have exaggerated the strength of their case, even to the point of tweaking their data and suppressing contradictory research, in order to ensure that their "correct" interpretation of reality is the one that prevails.

Related video: HIde the Decline II (A sequel to the popular 'Hide the Decline' spoof video poking fun at Dr. Michael Mann, a prominent scientist involved in the Climategate scandal.):

Related must-read: Corruption of Climate Science Has Created 30 Lost Years

Posted by Hyscience at May 13, 2011 10:58 AM

• On Climate Change and the 'Dog S*** Yoghurt Fallacy' - May 13, 2011