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January 19, 2010
FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model Predicts Scott Brown as a 74 Percent Favorite to Win
Topics: Political News and commentariesIf this senate forecasting model is as accurate as its history indicates it is, Martha Coakley is headed for a disastrous defeat and Brown a 3:1 favorite to win a spectacular victory.
Via Five Thirty Eight:
The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley.And apparently, Coakley's odds are even worse than they were 24 hours ago:
Coakley's odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her. Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.Continue reading 538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite
Interestingly, the 538 prediction of Brown being a 74 percent favorite to win correlates almost perfectly with Intrades prediction of Brown having a 79 percent chance of winning. Of course, all this depends on Brown's supporters actually getting out to the polls.
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Posted by Richard at January 19, 2010 7:51 AM
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