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July 11, 2007

As U.S. Remains Indecisive - Time Running Out For Iran Strike'

Topics: Iran

SatelliteNatanz.jpgAs the Bush administration continues to remain indecisive about the significant Iranian threat to American interests, Brig.-Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of Military Intelligence's Research Division, says that the time to launch an effective military strike against Iran's nuclear installations is running out, and that as long as Russia is not aligned with the United States, sanctions will not work on their own to stop Iran.

With Iran continuing to believe that the U.S. and Israel will not act against it militarily, and with Iran being able to continue to string along the West in dead end negotiations to buy time to complete it's development of nuclear weapons, the inevitability of a nuclear Iran and all the deadly consequences for the world that go with it, becomes all the more certain. As one Iran expert has said, "for any US strategy to be effective, the administration needs to be able to say: "We know what you're doing and this is going to be our response."" (Iran is surely preparing for the possibility of war, but deep down the Islamic leadership doesn't believe that either the United States or Israel is in a position of strength that would enable them to launch what would surely be a complicated military operation.)

According to Kuperwasser, who stepped down from his post last year, Iran is "very close" to the point that it will cross the technological threshold and have the capability to enrich uranium at an industrial level.

[...] As long as Russia was not aligned with the United States, ... sanctions would not work on their own to stop Iran.

"For significant sanctions to be effective the world needs to at the same time threaten the use of military force," he said. "Iran needs to be made to understand that if the sanctions won't work, the world is prepared to use military force to stop the nuclear program."

He said Iran was preparing for the possibility of war, but that deep down the Islamic leadership did not believe that either the United States or Israel were in a position of strength that would enable them to launch such a complicated military operation. Iran, he said, was purchasing Russian air defense systems and was fortifying its nuclear facilities and moving key elements to underground bunkers in preparation for the possibility that its assessments were wrong and it would in the end be attacked.

"The Iranians are working around the clock on improving military capabilities and they are also moving centrifuges to underground facilities," he said.

Clearly, as pointed out in Leila Krieger's article in the JP today, the U.S. has failed to grasp the fundamental threat to American interests posed by Iran, and the Bush administration's indecision about what it wants to see in Iran - regime change or behavior change - is hurting its ability to plan effective military steps or engage in persuasive diplomacy. The resultant divergence between America and Israel in their sense of urgency and "how much time is left" for dealing with Iran leaves Israel left to deal with Iran by itself in so far as taking the first steps for military action.

Given the continued failure of the West to commit to and communicate to Iran in a unified voice that a solid military threat against Iran exists,should diplomacy fail, the likelihood of Israel taking military action grows stronger every passing day. At such time that Israel takes military action, as it surely will do and likely sooner rather than later, it will likely do so believing that Europe and the U.S. would then follow.

Related - NATO: The US and Europe can not suspend Iran's nuclear program:

"NATO senior officials state that they are stuck in Afghanistan, and European and American troops are wallowing in the Iraqi quagmire, which is something that is going to prevent the leaders of countries in Europe and America from deciding on the use of force to destroy Iran nuclear facilities. Israel should prevent the threat itself and should not expect support of other countries.

Mr.Lieberman said that there is no solution option of the problem in military way in the agenda of European Union and the US.

"If we start military operations against Iran alone, then Europe and the US will support us.
APA's Israeli bureau reports, Mr.Lieberman is chairing a secret forum which coordinates joint activity of Israeli intelligence services for removing Iran's nuclear threat.
The forum involves representatives of Israeli Army, "Mossad" military intelligence and foreign intelligence service, atomic energy commission, national security committee and Israeli Foreign Ministry. The forum should present its proposals to Defense Committee of Israeli government. /APA/

What Iranians Really Think
Keen observers of Iran have insisted for years that the Iranian people are pro-Western, indeed pro-American, while opposed to the largely unelected clerical regime that rules them. For the first time, Terror Free Tomorrow's unprecedented nationwide poll of Iran offers indisputable empirical proof that these commentators are dead-on in their assessment of the "Iranian street."

Posted by Richard at July 11, 2007 6:36 AM

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