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January 26, 2007

Iraq: One Front In A Regional War

Topics: Iraq

Eli Lake's piece at The New York Sun, Debate Erupts Among Spy Services Over Iran's Role in Battle of Iraq, provides evidence for the proposition long argued by Michael Ledeen, that Iraq is one front in a regional war that cannot be won in a single theater (HT - Powerline):

As America's generals prepare for an increase in troops in Iraq, the American intelligence community has been fiercely debating the extent to which operatives directed by Iran's security services have penetrated the Iraqi government.

Several lists containing names of suspected moles have been circulating in the intelligence community since December, according to one American diplomat and two American intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. But the names of the suspected Iranian agents themselves are the focus of a heated dispute.

This debate, among others concerning Iran's influence and control of Iraqi government institutions, is one key factor holding up the publication of a consensus intelligence finding on Iraq known as a National Intelligence Estimate. The dispute over Iranian power in Iraq's Interior Ministry, national military, customs office, Health Ministry, and Defense Ministry will determine how President Bush's troop surge is implemented, one intelligence official said. "This could lead to disbanding whole units of the Iraqi military and affect how we embed our guys in their units," the official said. "If it's true, if some of this is true, it's very bad. But we don't know yet." While the intelligence community is divided over the degree of Iran's influence in the Iraqi government, the Bush administration has changed its earlier assessment of Tehran's aims in Iraq.

At a hearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence earlier this month, the outgoing director of national intelligence, John Negroponte, said the old view was that Iran does not want a civil war in Iraq. But he said this assessment was changing.

"One has to wonder why it is that they have increased their supply of these kinds of lethal weapons to extremist Shia groups in Iraq, provoking violence, attacks on coalition forces, and others. And one wonders if their policy towards Iraq may not have shifted to a more aggressive posture than it has been in the past," he said.

Be sure to catch all of Lake's 'must read' story on the Iranian penetration of the Iraqi government.

Posted by Richard at January 26, 2007 8:48 AM

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• Iraq: One Front In A Regional War - Jan 26, 2007