Breaking: North Korea conducts first-ever nuclear test :: North Korea

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October 08, 2006

Breaking: North Korea conducts first-ever nuclear test

The international peace accords of the last decade might well have been designed by Rube Goldberg! (... and this was in 2000)

The test occurred at 9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday night (10:36 a.m. local time on Monday - although the U.S. Geological Survey said it hasn't detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula in the past 48 hours).

ABC just announced it over the air, and the AP is reporting:

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

Only hours before, The Australian said that "North Korea risks total isolation," and indeed, North Korea has done exactly that.

Although the U.S. Geological Survey said it hasn't detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula in the past 48 hours, South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap. It said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city on the northeast coast, citing defense officials.

Aaron Friedberg writes at smh.com.au that a lack of resolve now, may have effects worse than can be imagined:

For Kim, a nuclear blast would be a personal triumph, the crowning glory of a 20-year nuclear program that puts him at last on an equal footing with his father. Success will boost the "Dear Leader's" confidence in his own strategic genius, while putting him in a better position to deter external threats and to command the continued loyalty of his subordinates. It may also convince him that he is freer to indulge his propensity for taking risks and his habit of extorting food, fuel and cash from his neighbours.

Instead of making Kim secure, and hence easier to deal with, nuclear weapons could make him more dangerous. The aftershocks of a nuclear test will reverberate in South Korea and could shake its society, economy and political system to their foundations.

This, not to mention the complications involve with the Iranian pursuit of atomic weapons.

As though the world wasn't already made dangerous enough by Islamic terrorism and extremism, N. Korea's nuclear test just made the world even more unstable and dangerous. If the report holds up as true, this is a day we will all live to regret - the day the international community allowed a rogue, unstable, dictatorial communist nutcase have his will over the world, and before we wake tomorow, what has been learned by N. Korea today will likely already be on its way to Iran, or at the very least, set off an arms race in the region and complicate efforts to get Iran to abandon its nuclear program:

The North Korean test may set off an arms race in the region similar to the nuclear proliferation in South Asia, where India detonated two devices in May 1998, followed in the same month by Pakistan's test of a bomb.

The North Korean test will compound efforts to get Iran to abandon its nuclear program, which the U.S. and its allies say is geared toward building a bomb. Iran says its nuclear program is intended only to produce energy.

North Korea's threat as an exporter of weapons technology to terrorists or so-called rogue states would increase with a test, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Oct. 5.

... North Korea is a known proliferator of weapons technologies,'' ... They've announced they have nuclear weapons. People have to be concerned that a proliferating nation might proliferate weapons of that type.''

Other coverage includes Polipundit and Secular Blasphemy .

One last thought. Look to see the Left blame Bush's foriegn policy for North Korea's nuclear test, along with "gee, North Korea was so happy with Clinton's oil before Bush clamped down on them with sanctions." They so easily forget the utter failure of the Carter and Clinton approaches, and that literally every single agreement with N. Korea has been broken. They also forget Clinton's "dream team" of Albright and Berger (they, like the rest of the Left, dreamed that diplomacy and dialogue with despots and idealogues is possible), and that virtually nothing they advised Clinton, worked - period. They also forget that the negotiations by Jimmy "the dhimmi" Carter, the world's worst president in history, went to nowheresville and stayed there:

(Negotiations Lite): Attempting to produce a string of triumphant Rose Garden signing ceremonies, the Clinton administration has blundered into one disastrously flawed peace agreement after another. Charles Hill explains why short-term diplomatic "successes" so often turn into long-term disasters.

... what happens when only one party--the American side, of course--takes such a sensitive approach? The 1990s negotiations of former president Jimmy Carter offer a demonstration. Within the single year of 1994, Carter responded to the "needs" of three of the decade's most odious dictators. Carter's intervention enabled North Korea's Kim Il Sung to start extorting food, fuel, and sanctions relief from the United States in exchange for promises of good behavior regarding his nuclear weapons program. With U.S. forces about to invade Haiti, Carter saved the skin of General Raul Cedras, providing him with a secure retirement. Carter's apparent success in gaining Haiti's agreement to a "permissive environment" for U.S. troops was soon belied as American forces had to engage in a bloody firefight to establish their authority. And in December 1994 it was Carter who first provided legitimacy to indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic and his Serb republic when the former president traveled to the previously shunned "capital" of Pale to negotiate a "cease-fire" that lasted only until the snows melted.

Posted by Richard at October 8, 2006 11:12 PM

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» Breaking: North Korea conducts first-ever nuclear test from Freedoms Zone
The test occurred at 9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday night (10:36 a.m. local time on Monday - although the U.S. Geological Survey said it hasn't detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula in the past 48 hours).ABC just announced it over the air, and th... [Read More]

Tracked on October 9, 2006 12:02 AM

» North Korea Successfully Tests Nuclear Weapon from Diggers Realm
Well, this is not good news for the world. It seems that it has been confirmed through geological seismic activity that North Korea has followed up on its plans to test a nuclear weapon this weekend. Notifying China 20 minutes... [Read More]

Tracked on October 9, 2006 01:42 AM

Comments

Subject: Effectiveness?
To All:

I believe the feedback, coming from the United States, concerning this nuclear test will open new horizons for discourse. Specifically, the United States is asking the international community how they could allow this nuclear test to occur. This question, by its very nature, implies an impotence to international effectiveness in deterring nuclear proliferation.

Now, instead of the United States appearing as a bully toward wayward nations, the international community could lose all USA financial support, if it cannot shore up its ineffectiveness. Clearly, the international community is against the ropes, so-to-speak.

What the international community possesses now depends upon USA financial and military support. If the USA deems the international community bankrupt in effectiveness, then we could choose to abandon our support. After all, if the international community cannot even persuade one wayward country from proliferating weapons of mass destruction, then of what possible use can they be to the protection of the United States?

The answer is: None!

With Aloha,

# Posted by harry at 10/09/2006 01:00 am - reply- forum

Subject: Active Intolerance Recommended
To All:

http://www.hawaiireporter.com/story.aspx?8c68b228-47ba-416c-8e03-359f70c16f4d

Nuclear Test Calls for Active Intolerance of North Korean Regime

By Michael A. Needham, 10/9/2006 10:54:54 AM

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has once again raised the stakes in its showdown with the rest of the world by announcing it successfully conducted a test of a nuclear weapon on October 8. It is not a surprise that the DPRK has a nuclear weapon—United States intelligence estimates have shown for some time now that the DPRK possesses at least one or two nuclear weapons and enough nuclear material for many more weapons. Nonetheless, if a nuclear test did occur, that test is both provocative and intolerable. In response to the test, the U.S. and its allies must extend a comprehensive offensive and defensive deterrent policy to the Korean peninsula.

Kim Jong-Il’s interests in pursuing a nuclear test include intimidating American allies in Japan and South Korea, further impairing the U.S. alliance with South Korea, and putting pressure on the United States. His behavior flies in the face of clear messages from the United Nations as well as key stakeholders in international stability. For the last year, North Korea has refused to rejoin the Six Party Talks, negotiations between North Korea, the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia aimed at solving the North Korean nuclear issue. Coupled with its refusal to participate in the Six Party Talks, the nuclear test amplifies the oft-stated point that North Korea has never had any interest in good faith negotiations. Rather, North Korea’s consistent approach has been to keep the responsible world tied up at the bargaining table while the regime builds its nuclear weapons program.

President Bush, in his first State of the Union address after the September 11 terrorist attacks, made clear the threat a nuclear-armed North Korea would pose to the United States. “By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic,” he said. “The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons.”

President Bush’s analysis underscores the reasons it is intolerable for North Korea to have the weapons Kim Jong-Il has now shown the world he possesses. The gravest threat, however, is that Kim Jong-Il will overestimate the leverage he has gained and behave recklessly as a result. In fact, he has gained very little new leverage on the rest of the world. Rather, he has further isolated himself by aggressively ignoring an international consensus that a North Korean nuclear test is intolerable.

Kim Jong-Il may believe that a successful nuclear test provides him with a safety blanket from under which he may lash out at the region and cause greater instability. American policymakers need to be conscious of this potential miscalculation on Kim Jong-Il’s part. In reality, the strategic calculus in East Asia has long contained the possibility of a devastating North Korean attack on American allies South Korea and Japan—whether that attack comes from conventional rockets and missiles or from the use of weapons of mass destruction.

The first, and most important, step is to make it clear to Pyongyang that a successful nuclear test does not give it any significant new leverage in international affairs. The calculus of a nuclear North Korea has already been factored into international strategic thinking. A toughly-worded, Chapter VII resolution from the U.N. Security Council demanding the DPRK suspend its missile and WMD programs is an important first step.

Furthermore, America must be prepared to defend itself, its allies, and is key interests from North Korean attack or blackmail. Accordingly, America must extend a comprehensive offensive and defensive deterrent policy to the Korean peninsula. On the offensive side, America must make absolutely clear that the use or sale of nuclear weapons by North Korea will have devastating consequences to the regime. America cannot and will not tolerate nuclear weapons being used against our nation, allies, or interests, nor their sale to entities which may use them in such a manner.

Defensively, the United States must commit to funding and implementing a fully functioning, comprehensive ballistic missile defense system. The United States currently has a very limited capability to shoot down ICBMs. Congress and the Administration should immediately revisit the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) proposal made in 1991 by the then-director of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, Ambassador Henry F. Cooper, and current National Security Advisor Stephen J. Hadley. The GPALS system could engage up to 200 individual missile reentry vehicles and destroy ICBMs such as the Taepodong 2. In the next few years, North Korea will likely have the capability to strike the United States; the United States must develop a defensive capability able to protect itself from Pyongyang’s unpredictable behavior.

Finally, North Korea’s belligerence poses a direct threat to the American national security strategy of preventing the world’s most dangerous regimes from possessing the world’s most dangerous weapons. Accordingly, the United States and its allies must make it absolutely clear that it cannot and does not tolerate North Korean nuclear weapons or nuclear testing and will actively work to reverse these programs. The U.S. should engage in a policy of active regime intolerance. America has already engaged in several tactics to put pressure on the North Korean regime, specifically financial measures to counter DPRK currency counterfeiting and the proliferation security initiative to prevent the proliferation of WMD and their delivery systems. In light of the North Korean provocation, America and other responsible stakeholders in a peaceful and stable global order must go further.

Specifically, U.S. should work with the U.N. Security Council to get comprehensive sanctions backed by international community; work with its allies and China to enforce a blockade on all North Korean exports; impose further multilateral economic sanctions, including cutting off all fuel going into North Korea from China and elsewhere; and pressure the over 70 nations with diplomatic ties to the DPRK to sever those relations immediately. Finally, no country should accept the legitimacy of the North Korean regime or its policies. The world and North Koreans would be far better off without Kim Jong-Il as a leader. The United States, its partners in the Six Party talks, and the international community as a whole should aim to give the North Korean people an alternative.

All eyes now turn towards China. Until now, China’s enthusiasm for applying real pressure on their North Korean ally has been tepid, at best. Moreover, China has long served as a transit point for North Korean proliferation and other illicit behavior. China claims to be a responsible stakeholder in the existing international system. Now is China’s opportunity to choose whether to continue as an enabler of the world’s rogue states or to become a “responsible stakeholder” in a stable international system.

North Korea’s nuclear test significantly raises the stakes in Asia, but does not fundamentally alter the strategic calculus that has been in place for years. America and other responsible stakeholders in the world need to articulate to the North Korean regime that they are not intimidated by its behavior, they will actively institute a combination of offensive and defensive military options to protect their interests from this gathering threat, and they will engage in a policy of active regime intolerance towards the North Korean regime.

Michael A. Needham is Director of the Asian Study Center at The Heritage Foundation.

With Aloha,

# Posted by harry at 10/09/2006 08:26 pm - reply- forum

October 08, 2006