It's probably no coincidence that the new tape surfaces at a time when senior al Qaeda figures are believed to be killed in a U.S. strike in Pakistan - very close to where Bin-Laden is likely to be hiding.

However, we can learn much of what Bin-Laden is up to by hearing what Walid Phares has to say. He writes that Bin-Laden proposes a "long term truce" with several conditions, all of which demands the US to implement withdrawals and recognition of defeat.

In fact Bin Laden's tape shows:

1. That the war in Iraq is going al Qaida's way.

2. The American people are not informed, and the polls shows its real position towards withdrawal.
PS: An indication that Bin Laden watches the American political process and wants to ignite opposition to the war from the inside of the US.

3. The fact that no operations have taken place within the US doesn't mean that they're not going to happen. There will be soon operations within the US and the West. Operations are being prepared, according to the message.
PS: Which means that there are significant questions in the Jihadi constituencies about the lack of operations in America - a subject discussed in the chat rooms.

4. The al Qaida operations will not be confined to Iraq.
PS: Meaning other countries will become operational areas for al Qaida.

5. The penetration of Western and US security systems is a metter to be discussed in the public debate.

6. The Bin Laden proposition for a "long term armistice" is in itself a prelude to further attacks coming. This is a Jihadist parameter.

Al Qaida is undertaking a strategic reassessment after developments in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and US homeland security.

Phares also writes:
"This defeat in Iraq will be known when the American people will be made aware of it." Which indicate to me that al Qaida is concerned about the rising awareness of the American public against terrorism (more on this later).

Then he states (referring to Bin-Laden in the tape):

ومن جهة أخرى استطاع المجاهدون بفضل الله أن يخترقوا جميع الإجراءات الأمنية التي تتخذها دول التحالف الظالمة مرة بعد أخرى والدليل على ذلك ما رايتم من تفجيرات في أهم عواصم الدول الأوروبية في هذا التحالف العدواني، وأما تأخر وقوع عمليات مشابهة في أميركا لم يكن بسبب تعذر اختراق إجراءاتكم الأمنية فالعمليات تحت الإعداد وسترونها في عقر داركم حال الانتهاء منها بإذن الله.

"The Jihadists were able to penetrate all security measures of the coalition, including in Europe. The fact that operations in the US are late, means only that it is coming, and you will see it inside your country (US). This indicates that al Qaida is determined to wage operations in America, but of a different nature. As I argue in "Future Jihad," it is about insuring the proper numbers of Jihadists (more on it to come).

Clearly, the War Against Al-Qaeda and Islamofascism has not only just begun, we have a very long and difficult road ahead of us. As each day goes by, it becomes ever more crucial that Americans and the West quickly realize that our world is in great danger, and that we must all now band together and move forward as one determined civilization - determined to defeat the extremely dark forces of radical Islam that all of us, Muslim and non-Muslim alike, are facing. This brings us to the issue of "better knowing our enemy." In his piece entitled, "The Civilization of Dhimmitude," Bruce Thorton wrote:

(...) One of the first requirements in any conflict is to know the enemy--how he thinks, what he values, what his goals are. In the current war against Islamism, we in the West have done and are doing a poor job of understanding our enemy on his terms; rather, we have reduced his behavior to our own particular prejudices and categories. Indeed, our enemy has been much better at knowing where we come from and exploiting our cultural ideals and weaknesses than we have been in understanding his.

(...) Bat Ye'or is a scholar of the Islamic institution of "dhimmitude," her word to describe the condition of those peoples conquered by Islam who remain unconverted, the "subjugated, non-Muslim individuals or peoples that accept the restrictive and humiliating subordination to an ascendant Islamic power to avoid enslavement or death." Dhimmitude is "the direct outcome of jihad," the military conquest of non-Islamic territory mandated by Allah as a spiritual obligation for every individual Muslim and Muslim community. Historically, Islam spread through violent conquest of non-Muslim lands; consequently, "Beginning early in the eighth century, a formal set of rules to govern relationships between Muslims and non-Muslims was elaborated, based upon Islamic conquests, practices, theology, and jurisprudence." This "doctrine of jihad established the relationship between Muslims and non-Muslims in terms of belligerency, temporary armistices, and submission."

(...) Jihad can be pursued through force or peaceful means such as propaganda, writing, or subversion against the "enemy," which comprises "those who oppose the establishment of Islamic law or its spread, mission, or sovereignty over their lands." All non-Islamic land is considered the dar al-harb, the "region of war," until it submits to Islamic rule and enters the dar al-Islam. The infidel enemy thus falls into three categories: those who resist Islam with force, those living in a country that has a temporary truce with Islam, and those who have surrendered to Islam by exchanging land for peace--the dhimmi, who live in a system that "protects them from jihad and guarantees limited rights under a system of discriminations that they must accept, or face forced conversion, slavery or death."

(...) The concept of jihad is not a historical artifact irrelevant to the modern world; it continues to be studied, invoked, and passionately believed in by millions of Muslims and numerous Islamic religious scholars, for it expresses a potent spiritual reality and belief which holds that all the world will one day become Islamic to fulfill the will of Allah. Thus the natural state of affairs between a Muslim and non-Muslim country is war. If Islamic armies are unable to prevail militarily, then a period of "truce" exists, a truce subject to several conditions, including allowing Islam to be propagated: "The refusal to allow the propagation of Islam in the lands of truce is tantamount to a casus belli, and jihad can resume."

(...) Western apologists and Westernized Muslims discount the ideology of jihad or try to rationalize as it as a sort of self-improvement, but the evidence of history confirms that for a chauvinistic Islamic civilization, war is a necessity occasioned by the infidel's refusal to submit to Islam and recognize it as the highest spiritual reality as willed by Allah for the whole human race. Thus Western notions of nationalism, peaceful co-existence between states, resolution of conflict through diplomatic dialogue and negotiation, tolerant cosmopolitanism, human rights, separation of church and state, and liberal democracy are all subordinated to the spiritual demands of religion, manipulated during time of "truce," or completely discarded if incompatible with those demands. No doubt, many Muslims today reject this vision of Islam and sincerely desire to adapt their religion to these modern Western goods, but the scourge of Islamist terrorism, and the widespread support it receives among millions of Muslims, suggests that such accommodationists are a minority.

Let's wake up people, this is the big time, the real thing - we are at war and our lives depend on us winning. So far, too many of us are asleep at the switch, and the light of history and reality has thus far escaped us. We are all, everyone of us and our families, in very great danger.

Jawa Report weighs in on the Osama's truce deal with, "The Al-Qaeda "Truce" "

Related:
No Signs of Attack, Intel Officials Say
Text: 'Bin-Laden tape'