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November 21, 2005

HarryTho 11/21 Natalee Holloway Update And Commentary

Topics: Natalee Holloway

Owing to the problems with the server today, tonight's post will be more commentary and less news, with both together being somewhat shorter than usual.

This evening, I would like to explore a scenario never before considered on any blog or news media: Joran van der Sloot and Jossy Mansur. Granted, on first impression such a pairing would seem improbably, if not outright ridiculous. From the media, it seems clear that there exists no farther degree of opposition than the positions of Joran van der Sloot and Jossy Mansur. Jossy Mansur has done about everything that he possibly can to pin Natalee's disappearance upon Joran van der Sloot and the Kalpoe brothers. Nonetheless, just for this evening, I hope you'll bear with me while I entertain such a combination.

Jossy Mansur's hatred of the Dutch may well be the prime mover in his campaign against the van der Sloots. Many blog posters have suggested other reasons, but, I believe, Dutch-hatred seems to be Jossy's reason. The Dutch have not been good to Jossy. The release of a paper, identifying Jossy as one of the head criminals in Aruba's drug trafficking and money laundering plagues, did little to improve Jossy's resume. The ouster of his political party, AVP, likewise, filled Jossy's mouth with distaste for the Dutch. I believe that we can safely conclude that Jossy is not too fond of the Dutch in general.

When Natalee Holloway disappeared, Jossy, being a wise international merchant, recognized the harm the publicity of this missing American girl can do to his family's economic welfare. Clearly, Jossy needs to clear this disappearance up as quickly as he can. Then, Jossy discovers the prime suspects are Dutch, as well as, the members of the prosecution and judiciary. He watched the image of Aruba, and his family's image, begin to fade as the Dutch fail to resolve the disappearance of this American girl. Inherently, Jossy blames the Dutch for not only the disappearance but for the inept prosecution. Jossy's contempt for the Dutch reaches deeper, because his family's fortunes are now en prise from the negative publicity.

All in all, we can surmise on the surface that Jossy had a bone to pick with the Dutch. Joran van der Sloot, it could be said, represents all that is reprehensible to Jossy about the Dutch.

Joran van der Sloot has never breathed a discouraging word about Jossy Mansur or any member of the Mansur family. Other than a few less than cordial remarks about Natalee Holloway's behavior on the night in question, Joran van der Sloot has been noncommittal about the psuedo-prosecutional participants in the case. He seems as confused by all the media attention as the rest of us, even more so.

Now, let us revisit the affair in which Dave Holloway conspired with prosecutor Flanagan and Art Wood, Jossy's agent, in order to oust prosecutor Janssen and Police Chief Domping. In an earlier post, I explored the idea that Art Wood merely acted as Jossy's front man in setting up the conspiracy between Dave Holloway and prosecutor Flanagan. It does follow that Jossy Mansur and prosecutor Flanagan have similar thoughts on the progress of the investigation about prosecutor Janssen, police chief Dompig and the lead investigator Jacobs. In my opinion, Jossy would not have objected to prosecutor Flanagan replacing prosecutor Janssen.

As theorized in my prior exploration of the Art Wood - Jossy Mansur connection, when the concocted letter failed to impress the Aruban Attorney General, Jossy realized that the gig was up. The failed letter ignited the Alabama governor against Aruba but failed to muster the support of the United States. Jossy feeling an investigation into the letter might expose his participation, immediately, turned on Art Wood, his agent. Jossy, via his Diario newspaper, announced the conspiracy among prosecutor Flanagan, Art Wood and Dave Holloway. Succinctly, Jossy Mansur severed his connection with Art Wood by naming him as involved and orchestrating the conspiracy against the current Aruban investigative team. Few people questioned Jossy's motives. The news of the conspiracy sent shockwaves through the American media. Dave Holloway, the levelheaded champion of his daughter's cause, was secretly derailing the investigation into his daughter's disappearance. Supporters rallied more to provide palatable reasons for Dave's actions than to think them through.

All I want to point out from the foregoing is that Jossy Mansur denounced his agent, Art Wood, when fate began to disfavor him. That is all I desire our readers to acknowledge.

Let us suppose then that in some manner Joran van der Sloot and/or Deepak Kalpoe were similarly working for some faction of the Mansur family in which young, white women were being kidnapped (lured) into an entry portal for the sex trade industry. It may have been a young man's aspiration to open a franchise on Aruba in order to create a future business for himself and a few of his associates. It could likewise be the case that Jossy Mansur was not privy to the caper until after the entry port was connected to the sex industry with the taking of Natalee Holloway.

In support of the foregoing sex industry notion, the Mansur's control water traffic of the fastboat variety on and off Aruba. Any fastboat carrying Natalee Holloway to Venezuela or any other destination would have to have been known to someone in the Mansur family. If Jossy can deny knowing the identity of the famous gardener witness who worked for one of his cousins, he likewise could have been out-of-the-loop, initially, in a possibly new sex trade scenario.

When Jossy realized the upcoming media attention and juxtaposes it with his family's involvement with various types of trafficking on and off Aruba, the need to severe his relationship with any off Aruba trafficking of illicit cargo has to be handled with haste. Rather than expose his family to criticism, he cleaves the boundary of involvement with the already recognized suspects: Joran van der Sloot and the Kalpoe brothers. From this boundary, or line in the sand, he affronts the suspects with every imaginable, even some unimaginable, forms of accusations in order to keep the attention of the Aruban investigators onto the current suspects.

Under this scenario, either Joran van der Sloot and/or Deepak Kalpoe conspired with members of the Mansur family to deport Natalee Holloway into a sex trade entry portal. Supporting information includes the fact that there exists no evidence that the suspects ever brought Natalee Holloway to California beach, the van der Sloot home or the Mariott Beach. Natalee Holloway could have been whisked away to a waiting fastboat somewhere along the coast of Aruba. The suspects did pride themselves as pimps, hinting at some aspiration to engage in the sex trade. The Mansurs do control the fastboats and clandestine travel into Venezuela. The Mansurs do own and operate many businesses along the trafficking routes: Puento Fijo, Maracaibo, Coro, Caracas etc. The Mansurs are accredited, illicit traffickers. Jossy Mansur may have a modus operendus of offering up his underlings when things go bad in his shenanigans.

There does exists a method, embedded in the madness running amok, within the case of Natalee Holloway's disappearance. The foregoing, though a strange and seemingly implausible combination, does explain, or lends an explanation, to many of the problems facing the Aruban authorities in the case. But all of this is only a theory, not an accusation.

On Rita Crosby at MSNBC tonight, she hosted Paul Finebaum of Alabama and Jorge Pesquera of AHATA.

Paul Finebaum discussed a recent poll where 75% of the 400 Alabamans polled said that they would not travel to Aruba. Paul discounted the numbers, and said that he feels the results have more to do with an unwillingness to speak negatively about Natalee Holloway. He finds the results that 60% of Alabamans would turn down a free trip to Aruba as ridiculous, and said that the high poll results can be attributed to Beth Twitty being a home town gal.

Rita then aired some of Beth's nonsense about Aruba on the Dr. Phil Show.

Jorge Pasquera of AHATA of Aruba claimed that the figures speak for themselves, and said that Aruba is the safest place in the world for American tourists. He said that he feels the boycott poll is Alabama specific. He feels most Americans discount the Alabama cries for boycott as out of place. Arubans, on the other hand, are outraged by the Alabama boycott.

Pasquera claimed that the Aruban police are professional, at which point Rita cut him off from expounding on the merits of the police force in Aruba. One figure does speak for itself: some 1.3 million tourists come to Aruba where they find crime in general almost nonexistent. Pasquera ended with the reason he and his family came to Aruba was for the low crime rate. Essentially, Pasquera's position was that the Natalee Holloway incident is an anomaly for Aruba.

What I found to be interesting was that both of Rita's guests were anti-boycott and in a way anti-Twitty-Holloway camp.

And in our last interesting bit of news for this evening, Scared Monkeys posted on the fact that the government of Aruba recently declared that they will not permit Joe Mammana to enter Aruba because of his criminal past, but Jossy Mansur feels that the government has to justify the reason why until today they continue to permit a person with such a police record such as Mike Posner, to set up a business in Aruba, continue to operate his business in Aruba and also come and go whenever he wants. When you think about it, that's a good question. So obviously, there's another reason involved then just Joes shady past which is no more shady than Posners.

Aloha for tonight.

Posted for HarryTho

Posted by Richard at November 21, 2005 10:43 PM

While I'm always interested in reading any new theory on this case, I have to say I disagree with the part that has the three suspects working along the fringes of the sex slave industry.
I think that "pimp" stuff was just a lot of hype. Joran was planning to enroll in an American college this fall. Why bother getting a formal education when you could probably make more money in the sex slave trade.
As far as Jossy goes, I wouldn't put anything past that snake. I do think he is either involved in her disappearance, or he is covering for the one(s) who did take her.

Posted by: Max at November 22, 2005 12:22 AM

Max, I'm with you on the Joran angle, but I'm not so sure about the brothers. As for Jossy, I don't know about him being a snake, but I wouldn't buy a used car from him, nor count on his view as unbiased and without some hidden agenda.

Posted by: Richard at November 22, 2005 12:40 AM


very early on when i began following this..........jossy was being interviewed on one of the cable shows & said something to the effect that it would be hard for natalee to have been taken from the island by boat

other than the fact that this statement is has always bothered me..........i just have a gut feeling about jossy's role in all this...........


Posted by: chip at November 22, 2005 12:59 AM

very early on when i began following this..........jossy was being interviewed on one of the cable shows & said something to the effect that it would be hard for natalee to have been taken from the island by boat

other than the fact that this statement is has always bothered me..........i just have a gut feeling about jossy's role in all this
Posted by: chip at November 22, 2005 12:59 AM

I totally agree, Chip. There's a lot about this character's involvement in this case that just doesn't add up.

Note to Harry: I think Jossy's hidden agenda holds the key to solving this case.
Thanks for the response.

Posted by: Max at November 22, 2005 1:47 AM

The strangest thing of all to me is that this is supposed to be about Natalee Holloway, and suddenly the news we are hearing about is Jossy Mansur whining because Aruba won't let Joe Mammana on the Island, so then why do we have Michael Posner here. Like just what does this have to do with Natalee, and what do we care about that piece of information. So to me really it boils down to the fact that Jossy Mansur is using the Natalee Holloway disappearance to pursue his own agenda and complaints about the Dutch System. Which really is none of our concern. Anyone find that interesting??

Posted by: therose at November 22, 2005 2:02 AM

Jossy Mansur is using the Natalee Holloway disappearance to pursue his own agenda and complaints about the Dutch System. Which really is none of our concern. Anyone find that interesting??

Posted by: therose at November 22, 2005 02:02 AM

I find it very suspicious.

Posted by: Max at November 22, 2005 2:12 AM

Jossy Mansur becomes quite defensive whenever the issue of water transportation to Venezuela is mentioned. The slave trade angle seems secondary. Any probing by the media into water transportation off Aruba would uncover the Mansurs' activities.

We must recall that the Aruban authorities did get a lead that Natalee Holloway was sighted in Puento Fijo, Venezuela. That sighting would have trigger an investigation into the Mansurs, had it been verified. According to Aruban police, the sighting could not be verified by Venezuelan authorities.

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at November 22, 2005 3:05 AM

I would agree with most of above with this exception: Jossy is both, suspicious and has an agenda. TheJ2K are innocent in the disappearance of Natalee. The Pimp stuff, just silly fooling around.It's time to zero in on Jossy. Quite a mess this has become!

Posted by: a..incanada at November 22, 2005 3:21 AM

I think Jossy's hidden agenda holds the key to solving this case.

Posted by: Max at November 22, 2005 01:47 AM

max: we seem to be thinking alike....jossy seems to have spent a lot of time in miami lately due to health....i have kind of been hoping that his checkups have been with CIA/DEA..........

Posted by: chip at November 22, 2005 3:39 AM

Monsieur Harry,
I thank you for maintaining us informed of this media circus.
I would like to know what is going to be the position of Mr. VDS?
I had always in mind that Mansur is the master mind in all of this, but why to take revenge with Natalee and no with one of the Twitty twins?
why to keep on boycotting Aruba IF Beth received the call from Mexico??

Posted by: antoinette at November 22, 2005 11:56 AM

hi Harry
what ever jossy's agenda is in my opinion really doesn't matter because with his power and connections no one can touch him,it would take years to try to even unravel this whole mess.

Posted by: candy at November 22, 2005 12:11 PM

Antoinette and Candy:

From the early responses, it would appear that we struck a nerve with our juxtaposition of Joran van der Sloot with Jossy Mansur. We might have uncovered a new franchise experiment with the slave trade that has gone awry. I have been informed that Aruba is teeming with targets of opportunity. The question we have to ask, as with all startup enterprises, is why has not Aruba been tapped for the sex trade that flourishes a few miles over its coast? Like a town with no pizza parlor when in the surrounding towns, pizza parlors are booming. It would have proved a lucrative venture to entertain. It is not like there is anyone trying to stop the sex trade in South America. Why not try taping Aruba? It would be easy money and the trafficking bonanza of the future. Since Jossy's family apparently peddled everything else, sex would not be difficult to sell. And, Joran and his friends even aspired to be pimps, even if just fooling around. The pair fits! Of course, I doubt Jossy Mansur nor Paulus van der Sloot were privy to the venture, originally. It was something the kids and some of Mansur youngsters cooked up.

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at November 22, 2005 9:35 PM

Dear Harry,

My personal theory of Natalee's disappearence is close to the theme of your latest posts; yet posters at some closed medium suggested passing it to LE, and suggests that your blog is a way to do so. So please let me put it below.

That is, in response to someone's doubt "Even though I have always thought Natalee left on her own. I still can't get past the link of Jossy to all of this" I answer "You must have missed my most far-fetched theory. When Natalee has told about her unhappiness in MB to enough Arubans that it came to Mansur's attention, that family contacted their former schoolmate and money-laundering partner Twitty the moonshine brothers. A plan has been developed to help Natalee escaping Beth conditioned that she would take a few little steps setting a stage to present a member of the hated family as a scagepoat. The plan so far worked almost perfect (note that a plan does not include actual conviction anyone of anything; just to drive the van der Sloots out of the island, bite a local government and keep Beth on celebrity money-making mission)".

I don't take a nerve to abuse a comment space supporting this theory; if interested, HyScience, law enforcements and witnesses are welcome to contact me directly, and everyone else is welcome to join (you would likely need a real non-HotMail e-mail address).

Posted by: George at November 22, 2005 10:04 PM

Your idea sounds good. At the very beginning of
NH's disappearance, Some blog off handedly mentioned that Jossey might be after Jorin. It stated that Jossey had been watching - photographing ? Jorin weeks before Nat disappeared. Also, somewhere I read that Joran's Papa might have connections to slave trading. He wasn't makinfg enuf as a public servant to
finance those "high stakes" gambling ventures he's reputed to enjoy. Scott

Posted by: Scott at November 22, 2005 11:21 PM

Dear George:

There may have been some Twitty family strife; however, I fail to see why Natalee Holloway would run to Jug or his brother Jar for salvation. True, though the link with the Mansurs is via Jug and Jar Twitty, it is hard for me to accept a simple sanctuary scheme. If anything, I would think it would be a grand scam or a coverup for some unfortunate less than Christian like accident. Now, Natalee did gain about 10% body weight between 3 May 2005 and her Aruba visit. Something was bothering her. What, remains to be seen. I just cannot see the Mansurs coming to the Twitty brothers' aid in this for any reason, other than a scam.

To me, if Natalee desired a sanctuary from the Twitty family strife, she would have sought out her father, Dave Holloway. Dave, to the best of my knowledge, has no link to Aruba.

In order to perfect your theory, we need to know more about Natalee and her family. Right now, the Twitty brothers do not present a good front as saviors.

What we do have is three kids lying about something. To me, the lying would support a conspiracy to get Natalee off the island in some manner ... most likely unwillingly.

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at November 22, 2005 11:29 PM

Dear Harry,

I have hard time to understand where in my theory you found a notion that "Natalee Holloway would run to Jug or his brother Jar for salvation". Many Arubans have reported that Natalee told to LOCALS about her unhappiness in MB. I have conjected that when this information came to the Mansurs, they came up with a clever plan offering Jar and Jug a great scum, whereas promising Natalee their help. I conject that then they helped her to secretly leave Aruba; I do not conject whether she has been thereafter allowed to leave South America or stay there on her own or held captive.

Hope this clarifies.

Posted by: George at November 23, 2005 1:41 AM

Dear George:

Your theory seems to parallel the one presented in our post. Aruban Detective Nicholaas, early on, expressed a similar possibility resulting from some form of Twitty family disharmony. It would be interesting to explore how the Mansur family members got entangled with one or more of the current three suspects. Deepak Kalpoe does seem to be a focal point with his job at the Internet Cafe. Thanks for your clarification.

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at November 23, 2005 12:45 PM

dear harry,
i have been fallowing natalley's story from the get go.i don't really like doctor phil or things he is doing. however hitting someone in the wallet ussalley herts more than anything.
the dutch boy jorden dose seem to be the starting and finishing point. he and his possey of so called pimps i think has merit. with these kids taking advantage of young girls is the big clue.the sale of child porn and sex trade is a big market. the big thing that sticks out to me is the disapperance of the casino thug three day after natelley's diaperrence. didn't jorden have a line of creditat his casino. maybe i'm not a rocket scientist but how dose a young kid get a line of credit. what was his credit up to. selling child porn and sex trade info can crate this cash flow. hey the guy was in organized crime i'm sure he knew how to make a girl dissaper as well as he did. thanks for your ear

Posted by: mark at November 25, 2005 6:07 PM

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