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October 23, 2005

HarryTho 10/23 Natalee Hollaway Update And Commentary

Topics: Natalee Holloway

We seem to be getting some strong signals that the 3-kid scenario for Natalee's disappearance isn't going anywhere.

Aruba GetaGrip writes that Dave Holloway has asked for the cooperation of the people of Aruba to help with tips and information.

If there is any indication of the progress of the investigation into Natalee Holloway's disappearance, it can be deduced from this call from Dave Holloway and recent calls from Aruban Police Chief Dompig for witnesses to come forward. It seems clear that the premise that the three suspects raped, killed and then disposed of Natalee has either come to its end or at the very least, has no basis of evidence to support it.

So I believe that it is time to strongly consider the possibility that some kind of master plot, a conspiracy to abduct the young, Alabama teenager, unfolded. To that end, let's begin to ponder some scenarios that could fit with such an abduction. Let's keep in mind that we are simply introducing one of several possible scenarios here, and some or all of the elements could actually be reality. As to which one - we just don't know yet. But there's one thing for sure, we're either right on, partially right, or we've got the makings of a heck of a good mystery novel.

Conspiracy theories - Part I:

I believe after some four months of frustration with the media-driven theory of the rape, murder and disposal of Natalee Holloway, it is time to entertain our first possibility (although not necessarily in order). Given the previous exposures of money laundering and illicit trafficking related to the major characters in Natalee's disappearance, one of the possible and credible scenarios that we need to consider is:

The underlying issue of Natalee's disappearance is not that of a routine rape and murder, it is a much more encompassing scenario. Reviewing what we have posted earlier, we find that money laundering and drug trafficking represented the pillars of the Aruban economy in the past.

That past was controlled by the Arubanese Volks Partij (AVP) within which Jossy Mansur, editor of the Dairio newspaper and spokesperson for the Venezuelan-origin Mansur family, is the godfather. Many members of the Mansur family (Lebanese ancestry) maintain their Venezuelan passports. Conveniently, the Mansurs maintain economic activities in Puento Fijo, Coro, Caracas and Maracaibo Venezuela. These economic activities, despite their monopoly on many tradable commodities, center on the more clandestine forms of money laundering and drug trafficking. Exchanges between Aruba and Venezuela occur routinely with the use of fastboats, owned by the Mansur family.

In recent years, Aruba has shed the Mansur-controlled AVP in favor of Gilberto Francois Croes' (Betico Croes) Movemento Electoral di Pueblo (MEP). Upon the murder of Betico Croes (accredited to Jossy Mansur), Nelson Oduber assumed the reigns of the MEP. In cooperation with the United States' Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), Nelson Oduber's MEP enacted strict banking codes in order to allow the central bank of Aruba (cba) to hamper money laundering activities in Aruba. Banking codes, similar to the American policies requiring suspicious activities reports (SARs), were required to be filed whenever suspicious banking transactions occurred within the Aruban financial institutions, specially, the Intercon Financial Bank (infamous trafficking bank) and the Interbank (owned by the Mansur family). Clearly, the actions of the MEP upon the Aruban financial industry were detrimental to the money laundering and drug trafficking activities of the criminal elements operating between Venezuela and Aruba.

Update [hat tip - George( comments below)] : For confirmation that the Mansur clan has dirty hands in drug trafficking, money laundering and worse, look at their connections to terrorism, such as with Hezbollah:

(...) According to El Espectador, Mohamed Ali Farhad has been linked to a money laundering investigation that involved the Aruba-based Mansur clan of Eric and Alexander Mansur, who controlled cigarette smuggling in the 1990s through the Mansur Free Zone Trading Company N.V., with its main offices in the Netherlands Antilles. 120 The Mansurs inherited a smuggling and drug trafficking empire established in the islands by the Cosa Nostra's Cuntrera-Caruana clan, when it began to work in Venezuela with Cali Cartel organizations.

(...) Until the U.S. indictment of the Mansur brothers for money laundering, Philip Morris' main (118 (Venezuela), April 1, 2000. 119 Castillo. 120 Ibid. Library of Congress - Federal Research Division Narcotics-Funded Terrorist/Extremist Groups) distributor in Latin America was the Mansur Free Zone Trading Company, N.V.121 According to a lawsuit filed against Philip Morris in 2000 by the governors of 25 of Colombia's 32 departments, plus the capital district of Bogotá, the company sold tobacco to smugglers in exchange for narco dollars, in what is commonly referred to as the Black Market Peso Exchange (BMPE). "Instead of repatriating narco dollars from their U.S. sales points, money launderers simply use them to purchase goods, which are then exported to Colombia and other Latin American countries and sold for pesos," according to the lawsuit. "The pesos then flow into the Colombian bank accounts of the drug barons."Allegedly, much of the proceeds garnered by the Mansur brothers went to Hizballah. - End item.

Although the money laundering potential on Aruba is limited, the true explosive and rewarding market for drug proceeds is the United States of America where the monies can be integrated into a plethora of investment structures, and the Mansurs have been in a position to capitalize on it (as have been the terrorists via the Mansurs). Huge American financial institutions (billions of dollars in assets) can employ these funds into the startup phases of risky investments, such as urban development projects.

In order to exploit the potential of the American financial markets, Aruba's financial oversight needed to be relaxed in order to allow drug trafficking proceeds to flow unhampered by regulations. In a sense, the marriage between the MEP and the American DEA needed to be divorced. In the fall of 2005, Aruba would entertain a national election. Clearly, if the AVP could pick additional members of parliament sufficient to take control of the government (11 ministers required for control), they could oust the MEP and commence relaxing the oversight of the Aruban banking community. A plot to discredit the MEP could provide such avenue for success.

If we grant the commencement scenario that AmSouth Bank was involved with the Interbank of Aruba and the Banco de la Construccion of Venezuela, we have a motivated group with which to entertain a caper, designed to discredit and topple the MEP.
Conspiracy Theories - Part II
When AmSouth Bank was fined $40 million for money laundering, another blow was suffered by the money laundering collaborators (AmSouth Bank, Interbank and Banco de la Construccion). Since the United States, now employing the Patriot Act in order to discourage terrorist's funds from entering the USA, commenced close oversight of financial transactions, a freer flow and integration of illicit funds needed to be created in Aruba. A plot was concocted in late 2004 or early 2005, designed to remove the MEP from financial oversight control in Aruba. The deception had to be distant with the aim of discrediting of the MEP.

The AmSouth Bank connection would provide the point of deception. Knowingly or unknowingly, the daughter of the brother of a key figure in the executive circle of AmSouth Bank would be abducted in Aruba. The knowing seems to have the upper hand here, as Natalee Holloway gained substantial weight from 3 May 2005 to her abduction on 30 May 2005. Other than a possible pregnancy, something troubled Natalee Holloway in which she resorted to overeating in order to cope. Other knowing hints include her introduction to the potential scapegoat, Joran van der Sloot, under the camera lenses of the Excelsior Casino (owned by racketeering, ex-con Michael Posner of Chicago's Good Ship Lollipop), and her intentional meeting and subsequent, sensual carousing with Joran van der Sloot before a large audience in the Aruban hot spot, Carlos & Charlie's. Natalee could have been privy to her role in the caper to discredit the MEP, or she could have been a most unwilling accomplice.

Upon ensuring an audience witnessed her association with Joran van der Sloot, Natalee traveled about after midnight until sufficient time had elapsed for her accomplices (or abductors) to rendezvous with her at some appointed place in Aruba near the Holiday Inn. In the company of the her accomplices (or abductors), Natalee was either whisked off to Venezuela on one of the Mansur's fastboats or slipped aboard (planned hoodwink) the McWayne private jet (carrier of Beth Twitty) and departed Aruba.

With Natalee's disappearance assured, other members of the caper commenced camouflage, distraction and psuedo-investigation activities. Meanwhile, AmSouth Bank wielding their $50-billion-asset influence commenced a negative advertisement campaign against Aruba, and eventually against Nelson Oduber and the MEP. Incompetence of the Aruban government became the message of the American media.

Fueling the negative advertisement campaign, AmSouth Bank and entities of questionable character (ex-cons and money launderers) provided financial enticements which could never be claimed by an outside party. The misleading of the American public exploded into a grand scale and audience. Natalee was in safe hiding, well beyond the eyes of any possible observer.

The discreditation of the Nelson Oduber and the MEP crescendoed just before the elections. Despite all the negative publicity and degradation of the Aruban government, the AVP gained only one or two seats in parliament from the MEP. Yet, the MEP maintained 11 seats and control of the Aruban government. Nelson Oduber, disgusted with the shameful allegations emanating from Jossy Mansur's Dairio newspaper (voice of the AVP), filed a lawsuit, demanding retractions for vile allegations from the Dairio. Upon receiving the disappointing news of the election and the service of the lawsuit, Jossy Mansur became hospitalized. The gig was up. The MEP retained control of Aruba. Clearly, AmSouth Bank, AVP and Venezuelan drug traffickers and money launderers were upset. But, they had problem remaining: Natalee Holloway! What do we do about Natalee? Does she remain in hiding for ever?

Where could Natalee be? Well, either she is in the USA in hiding or in a Mansur-controlled area in Venezuela.

Interestingly, as USA agents began probing into Venezuela, the president of Venezuela, Chavez, accused the USA of plotting an invasion. Although this allegation seemed to come out of nowhere, it does provide a cover story for an increase in military presence in certain parts of Venezuela. One such location was Maracaibo. Interestedly, Maracaibo is a location of Mansur presence. President Chavez, in the middle of Natalee's disappearance, replaced the military commander of the garrison at Maracaibo. Though the president's reasons (publicized) where directed at an effort to protect the huge oil reserves in Maracaibo, rather than appoint a capable commander with recent experience, he appoints an "old boy" from his personal staff. Clearly, whatever the president of Venezuela desired protected in Maracaibo represents something delicate that would cause embarrassment to his government. I suspect that it could be within a Maracaibo military installation that we might find Natalee Hollaway.

Why do we implicate the president of Venezuela? Given his country's propensity toward drug trafficking and money laundering with the aid of the Banco de la Construccion, we would find it unfathomable that Chavez would not be involved in the profits from such lucrative ventures.

As our expose's into the King of the Bums' activities in Aruba began to take notice, Jossy Mansur was quick to announce the presence of a ruthless, Chicago racketeer in charge of the Excelsior Casino. Why? Certainly, someone with his eyes, ears and fingers into everything that moves in Aruba, Jossy Mansur must have known of Michael Posner's presence. Michael Posner has been in charge of the Excelsior Casino for over 5 years. Natalee Holloway sauntered about in his playground and then went missing. Yet, the Dairio, with their incredible snout for smut, completely overlooked this infamous criminal's possible involvement. Why?

Jossy Mansur sensing his involvement being unearthed, published in an attempt to distract his complicity. Also, let us not forget that it is the Mansur family that owns a number of fastboats that could have made the clandestine transit to Puento Fijo, Venezuela. Yet, no mention of this activity is found during all of Natalee's disappearance. Why? Certainly, Jossy suspected this possible escape route out of Aruba, he owned the boats!

With the foregoing questions about Jossy Mansur, let us recall that it was Jossy Mansur that discovered many of the witnesses and alleged evidence in the case of Natalee's disappearance. Clearly, Jossy was intimately involved in promoting this case of Natalee's disappearance and her subsequent ill-fate in the hands of Joran van der Sloot and the Kalpoe brothers.

Accordingly, we could say that the foregoing warrants Jossy Mansur to explain his bizarre involvement in Natalee's disappearance.

In the way of background, on October 5, 2005, Jossy Mansur, the editor of the Diario newspaper, opined that the racial problems in investigation of missing Alabama teen, Natalee Holloway, were between the Dutch and the Arubans. See 1 -- "The principal suspect is Dutch, the lead investigator was Dutch, the prosecutor is Dutch and the five judges involved are Dutch. If you think about it, an attempted boycott against Aruba is unjust, because it is misdirected and won't achieve the desired results."

Jossy Mansur is considered the godfather of the Arubanese Volks Partij (AVP).

As I said in the introduction here, we're either right on, partially right, or we've got the makings of a heck of a mystery novel. Sooner or later, the real truth will come out. Until then, we can only keep digging and opining.

Posted for HarryTho

Posted by Richard at October 23, 2005 11:47 PM

do you think the last action taken by the DEA agent is related to the Twitty and that is the reason Beth refuses to go to Aruba?

Posted by: antoinette at October 24, 2005 10:55 AM

Bonne Jour Mademoiselle Antoinette:

I'm not certain if I am aware of the latest DEA agent's actions. However, I don't feel that Beth Twitty is involved in any illegal trafficking, if that is to what you refer. I do feel that the Aruban law enforcement wants to nail down some information concerning Natalee. The suspicion exists that Beth Twitty's earlier representations may not have been as accurate and forthcoming, as they should have been. It is quite possible that recent interviews in Aruba have revealed some alarming leads that run in contradistinction to Beth Twitty's earlier representations. To me, these sought-after declarations (definitive statements) from Mrs. Twitty may get her into trouble when compared to those statements, aired all over the cable news networks.

Legally, while Beth Twitty remains within the United States, she is beyond the jurisdiction of the Aruban authorities. To date, there exists nothing that would warrant her extradition to Netherlands' territories for interrogation. However, once her declarations are made, she might find herself running afoul of the Dutch law.

A bientot,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at October 24, 2005 4:05 PM


I read your blog only recently, so forgive me if I'm mistaken, but it seems to me that your exposure of Mansurs is missing data contained in the Report Prepared by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress under an Interagency Agreement with the Department of Defense "A GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF NARCOTICS-FUNDED

Posted by: George at October 24, 2005 11:20 PM

Dear George:

Our blog has revealed some of this information from excerpts that were published in other articles. We have the black market money wheel on file. Although I have not made a strong case for a terror connection between the Mansurs and international terror organizations; clearly, the case could be made. Right now, I am focusing more on the Venezuelan money laundering connection in order to illuminate how Natalee Holloway could have been whisked away easily into Venezuela on one of the Mansur's fastboats.

Thank you for the link!

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at October 24, 2005 11:56 PM

That's what I point out. US government alleges with respect to income from these money-laundering operations “The pesos then flow into the Colombian bank accounts of the drug barons. Allegedly, much of the proceeds garnered by the Mansur brothers went to Hizballah". Likewise, Natalee, whether abducted or voluntarily hiding, would unlikely still be in Aruba, USA or Venezuela at this point in time.

Posted by: George at October 25, 2005 12:19 AM


Your conclusion that Natelee Holloway has been moved overseas, perhaps to the Middle East, hinges upon a premise of either a terrorist involvement or white slave trade. Both options are quite possible. However, I see the scenario before us as more extortion related. In an extortion premise, Natalee Holloway needs to be available in order for the extortion leverage to be effective. The financial route holds far more important reasons for maintaining Natalee than simple white slave trade proceeds. In my scenario, the flow of billions of dollars from illicit trafficking schemes into the United States for investment holds the high promise as motivation.

The Hizhullah (Lebanese Party of God) would not stoop to kidnap an American teenager of little importance. Remember, there were far more attractive targets on the Mountain Brook trip to Aruba. I doubt the involvement of the Hizbullah.

With Aloha,


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at October 25, 2005 1:45 AM


I don't believe "white slave trade" scenario at all, and terrorist involvement in particular; I see Natalee more likely absent on her own volition, and I am ready to entertain an idea of an abduction as revenge or extortion.

However, I think you're erring tieing Mansurs to Venezuela, I point out that their connections to Lebanon are closer. And if Natalee is voluntarily hiding, I don't see why she would continue to stay in Venezuela; I don't assert that she is in Lebanon or Saudi Arabia, she may well have gone to any non-American country where chances for her to be found against her wishes are slim.

Posted by: George at October 25, 2005 2:17 AM


Sorry, I must have missed your late entry. If Natalee is in any Muslim country, the high percentages go with white slave trade. How could Natalee survive in any of these countries? Revenge and extortion have limitations. The Mansurs' Party of God affiliates would not stoop to abduct an insignificant, American teenager halfway around the world.

Remember, we are not dealing with a bunch of suicidal wackos here. This abduction was well-planned and executed. The persons abducting (or assisting Natalee) were professionals.

If she is in hiding, Natalee has gone some place safe. At eighteen-years-old, she is not a world traveler, and she possesses scant moneys. To me, that eliminates all of the Muslim countries. If Natalee is part of a scam, then she is in Venezuela with the Mansurs' people.

Natalee is eighteen-years-old (19 now) from a protected, cultural environment. How would a girl like this survive anywhere completely on her own? She cannot. All she has to provide her with income is her body. Natural diseases, like malaria, would do her in within a month.


Posted by: harry Author Profile Page at October 26, 2005 3:46 PM

Dear Harry watch out for Dans biased view. Stands out enough for everybody to see. I don't believe the complicated senarios above were implemented. Why not stick with the lust of the men and how many men I don't know yet. Posner would not be out of the question with high rolling lusting men in the casino and private games. Some people have no conscience. They tell me women are ready available, but the difference is willingness.

Posted by: Allan Author Profile Page at November 23, 2005 9:01 PM

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