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August 16, 2005
Misleading Iraqi Death Rate
Topics: IraqIn the last 18 months approximately 12,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed, according to government reports. This number, adjusted for unreported deaths, brings the estimated yearly death rate in Iraq to 45 per 100,000 people.
This is far higher than the United States and the usual (at peace) rate in Middle Eastern countries (both are under 10).
However, the death rate is not nearly what the press represents it to be, at least in a comparative sense. James Dunnigan explains:
During Saddam's long reign, the Iraqi death rate from democide (the government killing its own people) averaged over 100 per 100,000 a year. This does not include the several hundred thousand killed during the war with Iran in the 1980s. There are other parts of the world that are more violent than Iraq. Africa, for example, especially Congo, Sudan and South Africa. Only South Africa has a sufficiently effective government to actually keep track of the death rate, mostly from crime, but it's over 50 per 100,000. It's worse in places like Congo and Sudan, but the numbers there are only estimates by peacekeepers and relief workers. In southern Thailand, a terror campaign by Islamic radicals has caused a death rate of over 80 per 100,000.Donald Sensing summarizes,
In other words, the death rate in Iraq today is less than half of the rate suffered under Saddam, not including a few hundred thousand Iraqis killed in the war with Iran, 1980-1988. So by this measure it is not true that the Iraqi people are suffering more now than under Saddam, as many of the war's critics like to claim. Furthermore, the 45/100K death rate in Iraq is not close to that of some other countries.Thus, the deaths in Iraq occur at a much higher rate than countries that are at peace. Certainly this is not acceptable.
However, given the state of affairs and the country's history of genocide and tyranny, the death rate is not nearly what most Americans would surmise from daily press reports and politicians who claim Iraq is worse off than before the war.
Posted by tim at August 16, 2005 12:32 PM
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- Misleading Iraqi Death Rate - Aug 16, 2005
