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January 5, 2005
On "Iraq Intel Head Sees End to Violence"
Topics: Middle East News and PerspectivesI posted on "Iraq battling more than 200,000 insurgents: Intelligence chief" on Jan 3; now Fox (via Drudge) is reporting that Between 20,000 and 30,000 terrorists are operating throughout Iraq (search), led by Syria-based former regime leaders, according to Iraq's intelligence chief in Wednesday's edition of a pan-Arab newspaper. In both cases we are talking about the same intelligence chief - General Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani.
On Jan 3 Shahwani was quoted in the Turkish Press as saying "I think the resistance is bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people," Iraqi intelligence service director General Mohamed Abdullah Shahwani said in an interview ahead of the January 30 elections. Although in that same interview he said that the number includes at least 40,000 hardcore fighters but rises to more than 200,000 members counting part-time fighters and volunteers who provide rebels everything from intelligence and logistics to shelter. So at the least we've killed ten thousand terrorists (not fighters) since Jan 3, or his estimates are not terribly exact and fluctuate according to the interview.
Now that I've criticized his accuracy and consistency, in fairness there is some consistency in his remarks that make for a better understanding of what he might be trying to say. For example, in the Fox article on Jan 5 he is quoted as saying that they are mainly in the Sunni areas where they receive moral support from about 200,000 people." He went on to say that the men are well-organized and trained, include former Baath party members, some Islamic militant groups and former army members who lost their jobs. Yet on Jan 3 the terrorists seem to have been much greater in number because he is quoted as making the astonishing comment that ""I think the resistance is bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people."
I think the point to take away from this introduction to the Fox article and this reflection on the Jan 3 article is that we should probably take both with a few grains of salt - for in reality the intelligence chief might need a little more intell and analysis before he or anyone else knows what the real facts on the ground are. As to the Fox article, the news is that it's mostly good news, instead of the customary MSM all bad! Of course this is Fox we are talking about, not the alphabets.
Now here is today's Fox article referred to by Drudge:
Iraq Intel Head Sees End to Violence 'via Fox'.
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
CAIRO, Egypt -- Between 20,000 and 30,000 terrorists are operating throughout Iraq (search), led by Syria-based former regime leaders, Iraq's intelligence chief told Wednesday's edition of a pan-Arab newspaper.
Maj. Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Shahwani told Asharq Al-Awsat that he expected the armed attacks would decrease and end within a year.
"We officially call them terrorists," he said. "They are between 20,000 and 30,000 armed men operating all over Iraq, mainly in the Sunni areas where they receive moral support from about 200,000 people."
Al-Shahwani said the men, who are well-organized and trained, include former Baath party members, some Islamic militant groups and former army members who lost their jobs.
Al-Shahwani said terrorist attacks would negatively affect the Jan. 30 election because some people would not be able to reach polling stations.
"Whether these attacks would increase or decrease, this depends on the elections result, but our expectation, as a security organ, is that the attacks will recede and end in one year," he said.
He did not elaborate.
He said the insurgents get good financial support from former leading Baathist Mohammed Younis al-Ahmed and Sabaawi al-Hassan, a half brother of Saddam Hussein, who he said are in Syria and are easily moving in and out of Iraq. Saddam's former deputy Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri is also working with insurgents, he said.
Syria has denied Iraqi accusations that the terrorists get support from Damascus and that they move freely across the border. Iraq also accused Iran of allowing the insurgents to cross into Iraq.
Al-Shahwani said he had not seen any changes in Syrian and Iranian policies following the Iraqi accusations.
"The problems are still coming from these two countries because the borders are open and the support is going on to serve their interests," he said.
The Iraqi intelligence chief said insurgent activities in Fallujah have receded since a U.S. and Iraqi military campaign last month but that leading members fled to different areas.
He named "hot areas" where insurgents were active, including the so-called "Sunni Triangle," eastern Diyala province and areas north of Hillah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) south of Baghdad. He said armed groups were seen stopping and searching people in the streets of the northern city of Mosul. Inside Baghdad, he named the dangerous regions as Haifa Street and the districts of Azamiyah, Doura and Ghazaliyah, as well as the road leading to the airport.
Al-Shahwani was pensioned by Saddam in 1984 and defected from Iraq in 1990. He formed an opposition military group backed by the U.S. administration. Saddam executed several members of his group, including al-Shahwani's three sons. Source...
Posted by Hyscience at January 5, 2005 5:25 PM
Articles Related to Middle East News and Perspectives:
- On "Iraq Intel Head Sees End to Violence" - Jan 05, 2005
