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November 19, 2004

Strategy Page Report: Shahib Missile Info Known In October

Topics: Middle East News and Perspectives

For a little more perspective on the Iran nuclear issue (see previous post also):

What folks were thinking about in October 2004 (from StrategyPage.com):
"October 7, 2004: Many pundits believe an Israeli air force strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would be a clean-cut strike similar to the 1981 Israel strike against Iraq's Osirak's nuclear reactor. The reality is quite different. The Iraqis centralized their nuclear facility at one site, but the Iranians have dispersed their nuclear weapons operations across the country,  with some facilities hidden underground. An air strike would require hitting multiple targets at around the same time and would require high quality intelligence data on locations, defenses, and equipment."

"Over the past two months, Iran and Israel have been conducting a war of words about their respective long-range missile and anti-missile capabilities. Iran has made it clear that any Israeli military strike against them would result in a retaliatory action, most likely with Shahab-3 missiles. While the Shahab-3 is not fully perfected, U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran could launch several missiles in an emergency. The Shahab-3 is designed to be delivered from a mobile launcher, has enough range around 1500 kilometers -- to strike Israel and is capable of carrying a conventional warhead of between 1,600 to 2,500 pounds. Estimated accuracy is within 190 meters  accurate enough to get a warhead uncomfortable close to Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor complex. At the moment, the Iranians could use high explosive, chemical or "dirty bomb" (high explosives surrounded by radioactive material) warheads. Israel fears that in a few years, Iran will have nuclear warheads."

"Iran has also flight-tested what analysts are calling a new Shahab design that appears to significantly borrow from the Soviet-era SS-9 ICBM. The "Shahab-4" as it is sometimes called, uses a smaller re-entry vehicle design that looks like a baby-bottle neck, rather than a cone-shaped design. Senior Iranian officials are claiming that it has a range of 2,000 kilometers. Former Soviet and Chinese rocket engineers are alleged to have helped the Iranians design their latest missile."
note: Hyscience emphasis,

It appears that Iran may be closer to having what Israel fears, the advanced or re-fitted Shahab and a nuclear warhead! What seemed years away in October 2004, seems to be moving very fast indeed.  More...

Posted by Hyscience at November 19, 2004 4:24 PM

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