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November 26, 2004

Iran Target: The Jewish state

Today in the Jerusalem post comes this updated article:

Iranian rocket scientist Col. Ali Mahmud Mimand fell into semi-consciousness at his desk. It appeared to be a heart attack. As the brain behind Iran's efforts to produce the Shihab-3 missile capable of reaching Israel, his anxious subordinates rushed him to a hospital. He died en route. It was July 2001 and rumors quickly spread throughout Teheran that Mimand had been assassinated by either Israeli or US agents.

His family, however, said the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had arrested him on suspicions he was spying for the Americans, tortured him nearly to death and then dumped his body in his office.

Whatever the truth, the incident shows that there are numerous events and stumbling blocks confounding Iran's efforts to get nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching Israel.

International pressure, internal strife and technical challenges are all obstacles the ruling theocracy has faced in its 19-year effort to get nukes.

In Israel, opinions are divided.

Senior officials in the government and military agreed to speak candidly about Iran, but only on condition they not be named. The IDF assessment is that the Iranians have not reached the point of no return and that with the right pressure they can still be prevented from getting the bomb. But some in the defense establishment believe it is deterministic and that sooner or later Iran will get the bomb. Yet they say this doesn't mean there is nothing to be done or that a showdown won't take place beforehand. 

Officially, Israel does not see Iran as an enemy, but rather as an existential threat. With no common border, Iran's military does not pose a serious conventional threat. The extremist and hostile mullahs have opted for going straight to a plan to annihilate the Jewish state. To do this they are developing rockets that can hit the country one day with nuclear warheads, not to mention fomenting hatred of the "Zionist regime" in the Arab world as they try to export their Islamic revolution.

Iran is the only country that openly calls for wiping the Jewish state "off the face of the earth." It tries to undermine and indeed halt all peace efforts between Israel and our Arab neighbors through terrorist proxies like Hizbullah in Lebanon and an increasing number of Palestinian terror groups.

"They want the bomb and will do everything they can to get the bomb," says one senior Israeli security source. "They are not crazy, but they do have an irrational streak and are very calculated. They do not take any spontaneous actions or actions out of context. History has shown that rogue nations tend to use diplomacy as a cover while they complete their work," he says.

BACK IN 1992, IDF intelligence put on the agenda the Iranian nuclear efforts as a potential existential threat. A few years later, reports started to surface of an Iranian missile project to make a rocket capable of reaching Israel. At the time, experts differed on the Iranian capabilities, but the basic assumption was that it was to be an extended process and in any case, was for self defense.

But gradually this thinking changed and in 1996 the IDF began to focus most of its long-range planning and armament against Iran. The Mossad, too, began to see as its main task the prevention of weapons of mass destruction reaching Israel's enemies and terrorist groups. Insiders say that today more than 40 percent of the Mossad's activities concern Iran.

Israel heavily invested in spy satellites, improving the Arrow-2 anti-missile system and began purchasing sophisticated and long-range aircraft (F-15I and F-16I) the defense establishment loudly and repeatedly boasted were capable of reaching Iran. In reality, these expensive moves were just shoring up doomsday scenarios. The real war was not likely to be a repeat of the 1981 IAF raid on the Iraqi Osirak reactor, a bold move taken singlehandedly by Israel. But Israel had to portray an image that it could if it wanted to.   Source

Posted by Hyscience at November 26, 2004 7:59 PM

• Iran Target: The Jewish state - Nov 26, 2004